Potential sea level rise worse than previously expected

Scientific studies over the last year show that ice is being discharged from Greenland and the West Antarctic Peninsula at a much greater rate than glaciologists previously thought possible, Professor Chris Rapley told the Climate Clinic in Brighton today (Tuesday 19 September). Professor Rapley also said the discharge from Greenland, and probably also Antarctica, is accelerating. The findings have profound consequences for the world's sea levels.

The Director of the British Antarctic Survey - an acknowledged world expert - said the scientific understanding of what was happening was moving so quickly with significant new evidence on the speed of ice loss coming to light in the last few months.

Satellite gravity data shows a loss of about 210 cubic kilometres per year from Greenland. In the West Antarctic a similar amount of ice is being lost annually, while on the Antarctic Peninsula 87 per cent of glaciers are retreating. The worrying behaviour of the ice sheets is almost certainly a consequence of global warming, Professor Rapley said.

"It's like opening a window and seeing what's going on, and the message is it's worse than we thought," Professor Rapley said.

He added that although the complexity of the situation made it difficult to predict the impact on sea level, historical evidence pointed to a potential rise of five metres in mean sea levels. The most intense sea level rise in recent history, known as a `meltwater pulse' saw levels rise by 5m in a single century. Professor Rapley says a similar catastrophic rate is unlikely to occur in the near future.

But even if carbon dioxide levels are successfully stabilised, sea levels will continue to rise into the future as a result of greenhouse gases already emitted, leaving a legacy for future generations.

Politicians must respond to the urgency of the issue, he said, adding that current international political action on curbing greenhouse gas emissions is inadequate.

"Climate change is real, climate change is serious, and climate change is now," he said.

Professor Rapley was speaking at the Climate Clinic, a global warming conference within the Lib Dem conference in Brighton which has been organised by the UK's leading green organisations with the support of business and the Energy Saving Trust.

Climate Clinic Spokesperson Phillip Sellwood said:

"Politicians from all parties must listen to what Professor Rapley has to say. We are facing a situation unlike anything we have ever faced before and they must respond accordingly. All parties must support urgent action to avert crisis and prevent the kind of devastating sea level rises that Professor Rapley tells us are possible."
Notes

Organised by the UK's leading green organisations and supported by business and the Energy Saving Trust, the Climate Clinic is taking place at each of the main party political conferences this year. The Clinic is calling on politicians of all parties to support urgent government action to avert crisis by preventing global temperatures rising more than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. See www.climateclinic.org.uk

British Antarctic Survey is a world leader in research into global issues in an Antarctic context. It is the UK's national operator and is a component of the Natural Environment Research Council. It has an annual budget of around £40 million, runs nine research programmes and operates five research stations, two Royal Research Ships and five aircraft in and around Antarctica. More information about the work of the Survey can be found at: www.antarctica.ac.uk

Chris Rapley Prof Chris Rapley CBE is Director of the British Antarctic Survey (BAS). Prior to this he was for four years the Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm. This followed an extended period as Professor of Remote Sensing Science and Associate Director of University College London's Mullard Space Science Laboratory. He has a first degree in physics from Oxford, a M.Sc. in radioastronomy from Manchester University, and a Ph.D. in X-ray astronomy from University College London. He has been a Principal Investigator on both NASA and European Space Agency satellite missions and is a member of the NASA JPL Cassini mission Science Team. He has been a member of numerous national and international committees and boards including Vice President of the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research and Chair of the International Council for Science's (ICSU) International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY) Planning Group. He is currently a member of the European Polar Board's Executive and ICSU - World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Joint Committee for IPY. He is a Fellow of St Edmund's College Cambridge, and is an Honorary Professor at University College London and at the University of East Anglia.

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